JRG/1: Disentangling the Effects of Demography, Dispersal, and Biotic Interactions on Population and Community Response to Global Change

Understanding the interplay between different drivers of biodiversity change is vital for making robust predictions to novel environments. In this project, a framework is developed for multi-species dynamics distribution models able to disentangle the complex roles of demography, dispersal and biotic interactions in shaping species niches and the population and community response to global change. The framework and its single components will be validated using a mix of simulated and empirical data, and it will be operationalised for European bird communities as test case. The project will focus on five key research objectives aimed at (1) improving our understanding how life history and environment shape dispersal, (2) improving our understanding how life history and demography shape species' niches, (3) improving our understanding how biotic interactions shape species' niches, (4) developing and operationalising multi-species dynamic distribution models, and (5) developing new biodiversity scenarios for European birds. Overall, this project will improve the scientific basis for model-based biodiversity assessments and increase reliability of biodiversity predictions for broad spatial scales by providing both theoretical and conceptual advancements and by defining practical requirements and guidelines for the development and application of biodiversity models.